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Contrary to common belief, extensive financial research has raised skepticism about the ability of financial experts, professional investors, and (hedge) fund managers to consistently make accurate market predictions and outperform market indices.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Benjamin Graham: Known as the father of value investing, Graham often emphasized the irrationality of the market and the importance of fundamental analysis over market speculation.
“Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.”
Warren Buffett: A student of Benjamin Graham, Buffett has often criticized the short-term thinking of Wall Street and the herd mentality of investors.
“A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”
Burton Malkiel: Author of “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” Malkiel argues that asset prices typically exhibit signs of a random walk and that it is hard for anyone, including professional investors, to consistently outperform the market.
“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: In his book “The Black Swan,” Taleb discusses the impact of highly improbable events and the limitations of financial models, suggesting that many professionals underestimate the role of randomness and uncertainty in the markets.
“The idea that a bell could ring to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don’t even know of anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.”
John C. Bogle: Founder of Vanguard Group and a major proponent of index investing, Bogle often pointed out the inefficiencies of active fund management and the difficulty of outperforming the market consistently.
“Remember that the stock market is manic-depressive.”
Charlie Munger: As Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Munger is known for his skepticism of investment models that underestimate risk and the irrational behavior of market participants. He advocates for a disciplined, long-term approach to investing, often highlighting the limitations of standard practices in the investment industry.
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